https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/01/25/president-trumps-inflated-estimate-for-keystone-xl-construction-jobs/?utm_term=.0f899176d2a8&wpisrc=nl_politics&wpmm=1
Trump claims the pipeline would create 28,000 jobs, implying they are “great construction jobs.”
The Facts
Give Trump some credit; his number is lower than some of the figures that have been touted by politicians over the years. But he runs into trouble by suggesting these would all be construction jobs.
A White House spokesman did not respond to a query about the source of Trump’s figure. So let’s look at the most comprehensive estimate that was calculated, by the U.S. State Department.
The Keystone XL pipeline is a construction project, and so the most direct jobs are related to construction. These are basically short-term jobs, lasting on average 19.5 weeks, to assemble the pipeline that would help carry heavy crude oil from Canada’s Alberta province to the Gulf Coast. Over two construction seasons, the main beneficiaries of the project would be Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska — each would need to hire between 2,700 and 4,000 construction workers — though Kansas would also hire about 200.
- Montana: 4,000 construction workers for an average of 19 weeks = 1,462 workers
- South Dakota: 3,500 construction workers for an average of 20 weeks = 1,346 workers
- Nebraska: 2,700 construction workers for an average of 19.5 weeks = 1,013 workers
- Kansas: 200 construction workers for an average of 33.5 weeks = 129 workers
Because of the difficulty in determining whether the project would last one or two years, the State Department decided to express all of the jobs as an annual figure. So those 4,000 construction workers in Montana who work for 19 weeks were turned into nearly 1,500 jobs on annual basis.
All told, 10,400 construction workers, engaged for four- or eight-month periods, are expressed in the State Department report as 3,900 jobs — one position that is filled one full year — even though none of the jobs actually last a full year.
The figure that really should be used is 3,900 jobs. But it is also correct to say that 10,400 construction workers would get jobs, as long as a politician made clear this was mostly part-year employment.
The State Department also calculated that about 12,000 other annual jobs would stem from direct spending on the project. But some of these jobs have already been created. Workers in Arkansas, for instance, have already built about half of the high-strength line pipe needed for the project, some 333,000 tons.
The rest of the pipeline was built in Canada, Italy and India, but Trump said he said signed an order stating “the pipe should be made in the United States.” So, if he follows through on that demand, the rest of the pipe, already built in other countries, would need to be built in the United States. So, for the sake of simplicity, let’s credit all of 12,000 jobs to the revived project.
That still leaves Trump 12,000 jobs short.
